Les Billets de Monocle

The Gorilla's Dance

05 April 2023

On February 7, Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, introduced the new Bing search feature powered by ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence software developed by OpenAI, a Microsoft partner. On this occasion, he announced that it would revolutionize the way we search for things on the internet. He emphasized the need for this change, as the search landscape was dominated by a single player, Google, referred to as the "800-pound gorilla" by Nadella, who seemed to have become complacent with its monopoly. He stated, "I have a lot of respect for Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google, and his team. But with what we are releasing today, it will force them to rise and come to the dance. And I want the world to know that we're the ones who made them dance." (Nadella, February 7, 2023).

It reminds me of a scene from the movie "Le Grand Pardon" where Robert Hossein/Manuel Carreras speaks to Roger Hanin/Raymond Bettoun.

However, in the film, things don't end well for Robert Hossein because he underestimates his opponent..

A similar story could unfold here: Google has a significant advantage in the field of artificial intelligence, as they were the first to recognize its potential. In 2015, Sundar Pichai already declared that Google would integrate AI at the core of all its products. Around the same time, they acquired DeepMind, the renowned company that would defeat the world Go champion the following year. However, given the sensitivity of this sector, as evidenced by Musk's recent call for a six-month moratorium on AI, Google is proceeding cautiously. Their response to ChatGPT, Bard, seemed less impressive than OpenAI's solution. However, Pichai explained in an interview with The New York Times this week that it was intentional. They didn't deploy their most powerful engine in Bard. Their strategy was to first release a "light" version, let users experience it, and then follow up with a more powerful V2. The timing for this is a few weeks away. Let's revisit this aspect in a month.

Regarding Google's valuation, financial experts often argue that Google would be better off if it discontinued its "other bets" that cost billions annually. However, I hold the opposite view. After spending time in one of the related sectors, namely the automotive industry, I believe it will become a significant contributor to Google's results in the years to come. In the ongoing revolutions in the auto industry, Google is leading in two areas: software and autonomous driving. Traditional automakers are beginning to realize, often after significant investments, that they cannot succeed in these two sectors. Consequently, they are giving up and partnering with Google. Here are some recent announcements:

  • Renault has halted all software development and is adopting Google's solution.
  • Mercedes will retain its software but will integrate Google Maps and GPS.
  • Ford is discontinuing Apple Play (the iPhone compatibility software for automobiles) and opting for a complete Google solution.
  • Ford is ending its investments in Level 4 autonomous driving.

The last point is crucial: it means that in the autonomous vehicle sector, after the initial excitement has subsided, only those with a genuine solution will remain. There are few players, and Google holds one of them through its subsidiary, Waymo. Waymo recently announced surpassing one million miles driven autonomously, without a driver behind the wheel to take control in case of problems. This distance is equivalent to a driver's total mileage throughout their lifetime. The results: 20 accidents, with 18 being too minor to report to the police. Number of injuries: zero.

You can find more details ici.

We have increased our investment in Google to 8% of the fund..

Disclaimer

This presentation is a promotional document. The content of this document is communicated by and is the property of Monocle Asset Management. Monocle Asset Management is a portfolio management company approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers under number GP-20000040 and registered with the ORIAS as an insurance broker under number 10058146. No information contained in this document should be construed as having any contractual value. This document is produced for information purposes only. The prospects mentioned are subject to change and do not constitute a commitment or a guarantee. Access to the products and services presented here may be subject to restrictions for certain persons or countries. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances. The fund mentioned in this document (Monocle Fund SICAV) is authorized for marketing in France and possibly in other countries where the law permits. Before making any investment, it is advisable to check whether the investor is legally entitled to subscribe to the fund. The risks, costs and recommended investment period of the funds presented are described in the KIDD (key investor information documents) and the prospectus, available free of charge from Monocle Asset Management and on the website. The KIDD must be given to the subscribers before the subscription. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future performances. Monocle Asset Management cannot be held responsible for any decision taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this document, nor for the use that could be made by a third party. The investor may lose all or part of the amount of capital invested, as the funds are not capital guaranteed.

To unsubscribe or for any information request, you can email us at monocle@monocle.lu

Fermer

How to invest?

Important to know