Pfizer, The Breach of the Century
02 November 2021
Pfizer released this morning its third quarter results and its guidance for the year 2021:
- 82 billion in sales
- 23 billion in net income
That's twice as much as before the pandemic. A year out of the ordinary.
Bingo
Vaccine in the lead: 2.3 billion doses for the year 2021.
Enough to double the group's results in one year.
But that's not all. The rest of the pharmaceutical giant's business is doing well.
And Pfizer still has a stratospheric net margin of 30%.
On the other hand
The stock price has not followed yet.
Today Pfizer is worth $240 billion. That's the same level as in November 2018. Except that in the meantime, Pfizer hit the jackpot. Billions of dollars cashed in thanks to the vaccine. How that money will be used remains to be seen.
What happens next?
Scenario 1 - Covid dissipates. Pfizer cashes in the loot for a few more months and returns to its initial cruising speed: 45 billion in sales, 15 billion in net margin. It would therefore be valued at 16x its earnings: a good price. But with at least 10 billion more in the coffers...
Scenario 2 - Covid persists. We need booster vaccines every year and Pfizer is surfing the market. Estimates: 65 billion in sales, 20 billion in net margin. Pfizer would be valued at 12x earnings: that's cheap.
A great opportunity in these crazy markets?
Have a great week,
Pierre
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