We got Eloned
18 May 2022
Elon Musk, who used to be "our good friend Elon Musk", has done a 180° on Twitter: In the end, he doesn't know if he wants to buy anymore.
Reason given: too many fake accounts (spam) on Twitter.
The stock lost -27% as a result.
After taking our first profit, we put a line back in at $46 (his offer is at $54).
What we think: at this new price ($37), we have just increased the line which now represents 4% of the fund.
Because the contract he signed is legally binding. And since he already had a bad reputation after his troubles with the SEC, Twitter's lawyers have strengthened this contract. For example, market downturns or bad Twitter numbers are specifically excluded reasons for Musk to get out of the deal.
Secondly, it's not going to be easy to imagine Musk in court trying to explain to the judge that the company he wanted to buy two weeks ago with his billionaire friends is no longer an interest for him - being the richest man in the world is not an advantage in some situations.
Well, because at this new price ($37), Twitter is not very expensive.
My idea - for what it's worth: Musk follows the example of Bernard Arnault - another richest man in the world - who wanted to get out of the Tiffany deal in 2020 - Covid obliges. The result: after much discussion, LVMH did buy Tiffany, at a price of $131.50 instead of the initial $135.0.
That is 2.5% lower. "No big deal" as they say.
Have a good week
Charles
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